Based on the available information, there is significant concern about the potential for World War III, but no certainty that it will occur. Here are the key points:

Current Risk Factors

• Ongoing conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East are seen as potential flashpoints that could escalate12.
• Geopolitical tensions between major powers like the US, China, and Russia are increasing23.
• 40% of experts surveyed expect a world war in the next decade, potentially involving nuclear weapons and extending to space3.

Potential Scenarios

• A conflict over Taiwan involving China and the US is seen as a possible trigger3.
• 45% of experts expect a direct military clash between Russia and NATO within 10 years3.
• Some predict the world may divide into US-aligned and China-aligned blocs, with Russia, Iran, and North Korea potentially allying with China3.

Expert Opinions

• French President Emmanuel Macron has not ruled out the possibility of the Ukraine conflict escalating into World War III7.
• Some defense specialists warn of potential Russian aggression against NATO countries within 3-5 years if Ukraine falls5.
• However, many experts still believe a global war is not inevitable in the near future2.

Mitigating Factors

• Diplomatic efforts and international cooperation continue to try to prevent escalation of current conflicts.
• The devastating potential of modern warfare, especially nuclear weapons, serves as a deterrent to full-scale global conflict.

While the risk of a third world war appears to be increasing according to some analyses, it is not a foregone conclusion. The situation remains fluid and dependent on how current conflicts and international relations develop in the coming years.