Based on the available information, it's unclear whether President-elect Donald Trump would definitively defend Taiwan if China were to attack the island. Trump's stance on Taiwan appears to be more ambiguous and transactional compared to previous administrations, raising uncertainty about U.S. support124.

Key points to consider:

1. Trump's statements suggest a more conditional approach to Taiwan's defense:

• He said Taiwan should "pay us for defense" and compared U.S. protection to an insurance policy12.
• Trump indicated he might not need to use military force to defend Taiwan, claiming Chinese President Xi Jinping "respects" him2.

2. Economic measures over military intervention:

• Trump has proposed using economic leverage against China, such as imposing 150-200% tariffs if China were to invade Taiwan4.
• He has threatened a blanket 60% tariff on Chinese goods, suggesting a focus on economic warfare rather than military engagement4.

3. Lack of clarity on military commitment:

• In a post-election interview, Trump didn't explicitly state whether the U.S. would militarily defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion1.
• This ambiguity contrasts with the Biden administration's more explicit statements about defending Taiwan4.

4. Continued arms sales and support:

• The U.S. is expected to continue providing military equipment to Taiwan, as evidenced by recent arms sales approvals4.
• There's bipartisan support for Taiwan in the U.S. Congress, which may influence policy regardless of the administration2.

5. Potential for unpredictability:

• Trump's advisors have historically taken a more hawkish stance on Taiwan than his public comments suggest4.
• His approach to foreign policy and alliances has been known to be unpredictable, which could affect decision-making in a crisis scenario.

While Trump's public statements have raised concerns about U.S. commitment to Taiwan's defense, it's important to note that actual policy decisions in a crisis might differ from campaign rhetoric or interview comments. The situation remains fluid, and Taiwan's leaders are actively engaging with Trump's team to establish ties and clarify the U.S. position12.